In Myanmar, a relatively new ethnic armed group known as the Arakan Army recently took control of 15 of 17 townships in the war-torn country’s western Rakhine state. It also includes the Myanmar Army’s Western Regional Command headquarters located in Ann Township in central Rakhine State. It is the second major regional command center to fall since the beginning of the surge in resistance victories by allied ethnic armed groups – the “Three Brotherhood Alliance” – known as Operation 1027 in late 2023.
Observers say significant territorial gains by the AA are reshaping power dynamics in Myanmar’s civil war. The ethnic army’s increasing control over Rakhine state is also drawing attention to the plight of the country’s Muslim ethnic Rohingya minority.
In a recent phone interview with VOA’s Burmese service, AA spokesman Khing Thu Kha said the group maintained its hold.
Khaing Thu Kha said, “By December 29, 2024, our AA has completely captured all the military bases of the Fascist Military Council in Gwa Township. We are pursuing the retreating forces and attacking them. Are.”
In response, Myanmar’s military launched heavy artillery strikes from the air and sea, but failed in its efforts to capture Gwa, the spokesman said. The junta did not respond to VOA on this issue.
The Arakan military’s advance continued this week as it captured a major oil and gas pipeline station and shut down a key Myanmar military weapons factory.
The fall of Gwa followed the army’s capture of Ann Township in early December, when it captured the army’s Western Regional Command headquarters after intense fighting, another major loss for the Myanmar military.
In July, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, along with another ethnic armed group – known as the Kokang Army – captured the army’s regional command headquarters in Lashio in the northern part of Shan State.
“In the history of the Myanmar military, it is unprecedented to lose two regional commands in such a short period of time,” Naung Yow, a former Myanmar army major, told VOA. “These regional commands oversee vast operational areas and are critical to military control.”
Naung Yoe, now part of the anti-junta civil disobedience movement group People’s Goal, is located on the Thai-Myanmar border. He attributes the success of the Arakan Army to strategy and strong local support.
“The courage of the AA troops, their disciplined command structure and the overwhelming support of the Rakhine people played a vital role in their victory,” he said.
The army has not responded to the media on the recent fighting in Rakhine state.
strategic battlefield
Rakhine State is strategically important with its abundant natural resources and access to the Bay of Bengal. It is home to major China-backed infrastructure projects and holds geopolitical importance as a gateway to Southeast Asia.
The state is predominantly inhabited by Rakhine Buddhists, with Rohingya Muslims being the second largest population. The Rohingya have faced systemic persecution, culminating in a 2017 military crackdown that forced more than 700,000 people to flee to Bangladesh. Myanmar’s military is now facing international legal proceedings accused of genocide and other war crimes.
This latest round of fighting between the army and the Arakan Army, which began in late 2023 after Operation1027, has been fierce. According to local human rights organizations, dozens of Rohingya civilians were killed during junta attacks, some of which fired heavy artillery on AA troops stationed in Rohingya villages.
The Arakan Army, formed in 2009 by youth leaders from Rakhine, is part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance fighting the junta along with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’aung National Liberation Army.
With an estimated 45,000 troops, the AA says it wants autonomy for Rakhine state, aiming to “restore the sovereignty of the Arakan people”.
However, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk has condemned abuses by both the army and the AA, citing forced recruitment, extrajudicial killings and indiscriminate attacks that violate international law. AA offensives have reportedly displaced thousands of civilians, including many Rohingya.
On August 5, dozens of Rohingya were killed near the Naf River, which divides Myanmar from Bangladesh, highlighting their plight as they are caught between rising violence and closed borders with little access to safe shelter.
Rohingya are pleading for justice
In late December, 28 Rohingya organizations issued a joint statement calling on the AA, which now controls Maungdaw and Buthidaung townships in northern Rakhine, to “uphold the rights of the Rohingya and other ethnic and religious minorities” in the region bordering Bangladesh. Called for keeping and respecting them”.
Cox’s Bazar in southeastern Bangladesh is home to more than 1.2 million Rohingya refugees, most of whom fled Myanmar following a military crackdown in August 2017.
Meanwhile, about 500,000 Rohingya remain in Myanmar, living in areas now under AA control, including areas along the Bangladesh border.
“The AA has reached a situation where it can control up to 14 towns,” Tun Khin, chairman of the Burmese Rohingya organization UK, or Brook, told VOA Burmese by phone. BROUK is one of 28 organizations behind the joint statement.
“However, human rights violations against the Rohingya continue, especially in places like Buthidaung and Maungdaw,” Tun Khin said. “As a result, the Rohingya are not able to return to their homes. It is important to stop the daily abuses inflicted on the Rohingya by AA forces.”
Tun Khin said that after the AA captured Buthidaung and Maungdaw, about 60,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh.
“The AA, like the Burmese military, is driving the Rohingya from their homes, perpetuating a cycle of displacement,” he said.
The Rohingya and other Rakhine minorities must find a way to live together in peace, he said.
“The Rohingya have supported the Burmese revolution and stood with revolutionary forces like the AA,” Tun Khin said, “yet, they have been forcibly removed from their homes during clashes between the AA and the Burmese military.” this is unacceptable. The AA is committing crimes similar to those committed by the Burmese army.”
A path toward dialogue?
For its part, the Arakan Army reiterated its commitment to talks late last month.
“We remain steadfast in our belief that current internal issues should be resolved through political means rather than military solutions,” the group said in a statement.
However, in his New Year speech, Myanmar’s military leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, accused ethnic armed groups of pursuing selfish interests and provoking conflict while claiming to support democracy.
He also reiterated the junta’s commitment to holding elections, citing the completion of the national census and other administrative milestones and pledged that elections would be held this year.
During the 50th anniversary of Rakhine Statehood on 15 December, Min Aung Hlaing called on ethnic armed groups, including the Arakan Army, to “abandon the armed path and choose the right path”.
According to former Myanmar army chief Naung Yoe, Myanmar’s military rulers have not responded directly to the AA’s offer for talks.
“The prospects for a solution remain bleak. I still don’t see any negotiations emerging that can resolve the differences between the two sides,” he told VOA.
Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing recently reiterated his support for the 2008 constitution, calling it essential to Myanmar’s future. That constitution allowed the formation of a partially civilian government but guaranteed the continued role of the military in politics. The army overthrew the elected government in a coup in 2021.
However, ethnic leaders reject any political structure that involves the military.
“The junta is sticking to the 2008 constitution and ethnic leaders are envisioning a political future without military involvement, so reconciliation is unlikely,” Naung Yo said.
He also pointed to the Arakan Army’s intention to control the entire Rakhine state as a potential obstacle.
“If political reconciliation remains unattainable, further conflict is likely to escalate as early as 2025,” he said.