Outgoing US National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, is urging the incoming Trump administration to continue President Joe Biden’s strategy of strengthening ties with allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific to counter adversaries including China and North Korea. Have been.
“What we would say to them is that the American position in the region right now is incredibly strong,” Sullivan said in response to a question from VOA during a roundtable with reporters on Friday.
“There should be more continuity than significant change with respect to our Indo-Pacific strategy,” he said. “But I don’t know what the incoming team will actually do.”
Sullivan, considered one of the main architects of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy, said President’s point of view “There’s a massive amount of work going on,” and he warned that deviating from it “would bring risk.”
However, Sullivan acknowledged that the administration failed to make sufficient progress on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
As the threat from Pyongyang remains as grave as ever, Sullivan highlighted the key differences: close cooperation between North Korea and Russia, and “a broader alignment of competitors and adversaries – Russia, China, North Korea, Iran.”
He reiterated the administration’s warning against reducing US support for Kiev, something that President-elect Donald Trump has indicated he will do. What happens in Ukraine really matters for the Indo-Pacific, Sullivan said, because “China is watching.”
Biden aides have often expressed concern that the West’s reluctance to strengthen Kiev’s defenses could lead China to follow Russia’s lead and invade its smaller democratic neighbor, Taiwan, or over its disputed territorial claims in the South China Sea and It may also encourage others to act more aggressively.
Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific Program, said cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang has developed rapidly, with North Korea sending troops to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the possibility of its expansion. Is.
“We still have to see what weapons systems or military technologies [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has promised to fulfill [North Korean leader] kim [Jong Un],” she told VOA. “Beijing has refused to take advantage of the opportunity to stop this trend.”
Sullivan expressed confidence that the administration has “established a huge opportunity for the next team” to enhance the American position and “shift the balance of power” in the Indo-Pacific.
He outlined Biden’s vision of building a network of alliances and partnerships, including increasing cooperation with the Quad, an informal grouping with India, Australia and Japan, as well as with the United Kingdom and Australia to provide nuclear energy to Canberra. Includes signing of the AUKUS Security Agreement. -Operated submarines for better patrolling in the waters of the region.
Sullivan also highlighted trilateral cooperation between the US, Japan and South Korea, with the two former rivals now working together to deter North Korea’s nuclear threat, and the US, Japan and the Philippines to counter Beijing’s aggression in the South China Sea. Are working against.
continuity or change
Because relations between Washington and Beijing will likely remain adversarial, the region may see greater continuity in U.S. policy toward China under the incoming administration.
Trump has chosen two well-known Chinese for key roles in his “America First” Cabinet: Senator Marco Rubio, Trump’s choice for secretary of state, and Representative Mike Waltz, the man Trump wants to succeed Sullivan.
However, Waltz earlier this week announced a sweeping directive to eliminate all national security employees borrowed from other departments and agencies who serve in apolitical, non-partisan senior staff roles. Waltz said the firings were intended to enforce full alignment with Trump’s policy agenda.
In addition to staffing the National Security Council with Trump loyalists, it is unclear whether the president-elect would take a similar approach of leveraging the alliance to contain China.
The first Trump administration found that “multilateral alliances are more of a burden than they are in reality,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. During his first term, Trump ended US membership in organizations and agreements, including the Paris Climate Agreement, the United Nations Human Rights Council and the World Health Organization.
“If you create alliances, they will be based on clear, specific give-and-take,” he told VOA.
During his first term, Trump also focused more on bilateral relations, and he may return to that approach.
“He can insist on relations with strong conservative leaders such as [Prime Minister Narendra] Modi in India but does not emphasize on groups like America-Japan-South Korea triumvirate[eral]Especially if a new government in Seoul moves a little further away from Washington,” said Jack Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
“It’s unclear whether Trump will confront China outside of the economic sphere,” Cooper told VOA. Key uncertainties include whether the US will respond less strongly to Beijing’s moves in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
“Trump appears more open to talks in person [Chinese President] “Xi Jinping has focused on trade issues, but many in his administration will push for a tougher stance on security and technology issues,” Cooper said.
change in business strategy
Trade is one area where analysts expect a significant shift in strategy as Trump looks set to impose protectionist measures that punish not only adversaries but also regional partners, especially those with large trade surpluses, including Japan. Are threatening to use tariffs as a weapon.
Trump is expected to thwart the Biden administration’s effort to revive trade with the region. During his presidential campaign, Trump vowed to dismantle the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, Biden’s 2022 agreement with countries in the region, saying it would hurt American manufacturing and workers.
The IPEF was Biden’s effort to strengthen economic ties with Indo-Pacific countries, five years after Trump withdrew the US from the Obama administration’s most significant trade initiative, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, as he entered his first term. .
The framework pursues non-trade priorities such as supply chain resilience, secure digital infrastructure and sustainable clean energy transition. It has been criticized by many in the region for not offering market access measures as Beijing has aggressively expanded its economic clout, including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the world’s largest regional free trade agreement. Covers approximately one third of the world’s population and gross domestic product.
VOA’s Steve Herman contributed to this report.