France’s newest prime minister, Francois Bayrou, has to work this week on forming a new cabinet, pushing through a stopgap budget bill and — more precariously — seeking support for long-term budget legislation to deal with the country’s fiscal woes. – a move that led to the downfall of his predecessor.
The task and the stakes are huge for the 73-year-old centrist, a seasoned politician and longtime mayor of the southwestern city of Pau. Chosen by French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday, Bayeru is the country’s fourth prime minister this year — and he faces a bickering, deeply divided lower house backed by the powerful leftist and far-right.
Farmers, teachers, hospital workers and rail workers are among the thousands who have taken to the streets in recent months over agricultural imports, labor issues and other grievances.
France’s disarray is also of concern to the EU, facing Russian gains in Ukraine, and the threat of a more volatile transatlantic relationship with the incoming Trump administration.
“Nothing suggests it will last longer or perform better than others,” France’s leadership World the newspaper said in an editorial on Bayru.
French officials say the most immediate emergency is in the French Indian Ocean region of Mayotte, where Cyclone Chido has caused widespread devastation, killing hundreds and possibly thousands of people. The acting interior minister, Bruno Retailleau, was visiting Mayotte on Monday.
Bayrou, head of the small MoDem or Democratic Freedom party that is part of Macron’s centrist coalition, admits he faces a “Himalaya” of difficulties ahead. France’s budget deficit is estimated at more than six percent of its gross domestic product – double the EU limit – and the country is deeply in debt. Hours after Bayeru’s nomination, Moody’s rating agency downgraded France’s credit rating to AA3, citing “political fragmentation” as a reason.
“My first mission is to become a builder or, otherwise, a repairman,” Bayru told La Tribune Dimanche weekly in an interview published on Sunday.
The stakes are also high for Macron, who is deeply weakened after a disastrous political year. The French president gambled on snap legislative elections earlier this year, after the far-right National Rally party topped European Parliament voting in June. He saw his centrist coalition emerging as the weakest faction in the French National Assembly after the leftist coalition and the National Rally.
Europe at risk
So far, Macron has resisted calls to step down, insisting he will serve out his term that expires in 2027. But analysts suggest he could make a lame-duck president – leading the EU’s second-largest power at a difficult time for the bloc. A strong supporter of Ukraine, Macron has also long pushed the bloc to strengthen its defense of what he calls “strategic autonomy.”
Fellow EU giant Germany is also grappling with political uncertainty, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz facing a no-confidence vote in parliament on Monday and the possibility of early elections in February.
Prolonged turmoil in France could strain the EU’s “ability to demonstrate unity and leadership,” wrote analysts Camille Grand, Camille Lons and Pavel Zarka of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank. “Particularly,” he said, “in the face of growing threats to the EU’s security policy posed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President-elect Donald Trump.”
With France “trapped in domestic issues,” analysts said, “other European countries will need to show political creativity and readiness to take ambitious action,” including supporting Ukraine in the remaining weeks before Trump takes office. Developing a plan is also included.
Bayeru, a three-time presidential candidate who served as education minister in the 1990s, replaced conservative Michel Barnier. Barnier was ousted in a vote of no confidence earlier this month after a budget bill passed without a vote in France’s lower house. The move – by an unexpected front of left-wing and far-right MPs – made Barnier the country’s shortest-serving prime minister in modern history, lasting just three months.
Bayeru began meeting with political parties on Monday, starting with the powerful far-right National Rally, which has the most seats in parliament. So far, Rally is one of several major parties adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach, although red lines have been set that will make it difficult for Bayeru to compromise.
New polls show most French are underwhelmed by the latest political change. According to the Elabe survey, more than two-thirds of people said they did not have confidence in Bayeru’s ability to bring stability to the country. A separate IFOP poll found Macron with only a fifth of support – the lowest popularity rating for a president ever.
The French far left is one of Bayru’s most critical. Eric Coquerel, a lawmaker from the France Unbowed party, said he expected “nothing” from the new prime minister. The party is threatening another no-confidence motion, but does not yet have the votes to oust Bayeru.
“It’s up to him to prove this mission impossible has been made especially for him,” la tribune sunday Wrote in the editorial of Bayru.