Turkey is among local, regional and global powers seeking to fill the power vacuum following the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on December 8. Ankara is poised to become one of the biggest winners in Syria after Assad.
Despite being in a military alliance with the United States through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Turkey’s main target in Syria is also the United States’ ally in the country – the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF.
For years, the SDF has worked with U.S. forces to fight Islamic State in Syria’s northeast, and in March 2019 defeated IS in its last stronghold of Baghuz, near Syria’s Iraqi border.
About 900 US troops are deployed with Kurdish-led forces to prevent IS from regaining a foothold geographically, and the Kurds oversee prisons holding thousands of IS fighters and their families.
Nevertheless, Turkey views the People’s Defense Units, or YPG, which make up the majority of the SDF’s fighting forces, as an extension of the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK. The PKK has been engaged in an insurgency in southeast Turkey for decades, sometimes resorting to violence in the pursuit of greater autonomy and rights for ethnic Kurds. Türkiye, the US and the European Union all view the PKK as a terrorist organisation.
The SDF does not deny its ties to the PKK but has said it will not engage in terrorist attacks on Turkish soil.
On 15 December, Turkish Minister of National Defense Yasser Güler described eliminating Kurdish forces as Ankara’s “primary issue in Syria”.
“We have expressed this to our American friends. We hope they will reevaluate their position [on support for the Kurds]Guler said.
This echoes previous comments by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who said on December 10 that the fight against Kurdish forces in Syria, “which is a threat to the security and perpetuity of both countries, will continue without any concessions.”
Uncertain US support for the Kurds
During a press conference in Aqaba, Jordan, on December 14, a BBC journalist asked US Secretary of State Antony Blinken what degree of Kurdish autonomy in Syria is acceptable to Washington.
Blinken made no commitments and said the organization of Syria and the formation of a new state “are decisions for the Syrian people.”
Blinken said he has discussed with Turkey the importance of allowing Kurdish forces to continue fighting IS during this time of crisis, as Syria continues to transition.
Ankara has responded by massing troops on its border with Syria, with a senior US official telling the Wall Street Journal on December 17 that Turkey could attack Kurdish forces within hours or days.
As Türkiye prepares for a potentially massive attack, the future of US support for the Kurds remains unclear. On December 16, President-elect Donald Trump described Assad’s ouster as an “unfriendly occupation” by Türkiye.
But during his first term, Trump sought to withdraw US troops supporting the Kurds in 2018 and 2019. In November, Trump’s choice for Secretary of Health, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., said that Trump wanted to withdraw U.S. troops from northern Syria, not leave them there as “cannon fodder” if fighting broke out between Turkish and Kurdish forces. I work in.
Kurds ‘harmed the most’
While analysts believe Turkey is one of the primary beneficiaries of the toppled Assad regime, the Kurds “stand to lose the most,” from their autonomy to the security of their communities, said the professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. Professor Fawaz Gerges says. told France 24 on December 5.
After the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, Kurdish forces declared autonomy in November 2013 over parts of northeastern Syria, where they are in the majority.
An estimated 30 million Kurds are spread across northern Iraq, western Iran, northern Syria and constitute about 18% of Türkiye’s population.
The largest ethnic group without a homeland, the Kurds have long faced persecution in Syria and elsewhere.
Turkey, which shares about 900 kilometers of border with Syria, was a longtime rival of the Assad regime, and a primary backer of armed groups there, including Sunni jihadist factions. Turkey also hosted approximately 3.6 million Syrian refugees, which became a cause of domestic unrest.
Since 2016, Turkey has launched several military operations in Syria targeting Kurds with the goal of preventing the establishment of an autonomous Kurdish region on its border.
In 2019, Turkey tried and failed to create a 30-kilometer buffer zone along its border with Syria. For years, Erdogan has signaled that his plans to establish a defensive zone would remain in place.
Immediately after Assad’s ouster, Turkish-backed fighters moved in to take over SDF-held areas under that plan.
Syrian National Army
While rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, a powerful Islamist group, played a key role in toppling the Assad regime, another group with ties to Turkey – the Syrian National Army, or SNA, played a key role in that fight. Played and will prove important in shaping the future of Syria.
The Türkiye-backed Syrian Interim Government, an alternative government in Syria, helped establish the SNA in 2017 as part of efforts to strengthen the anti-Assad resistance.
The SNA, which is trained, equipped and funded by Turkey, helped HTS retake Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo, from regime forces in early December. The SNA is working closely with Ankara to crush any possibility of Kurdish autonomy in Syria.
The SNA took part in Turkish-backed attacks against Kurdish forces in 2018 and 2019.
Turkish Defense Minister Güler said the YPG in Syria would be eliminated sooner or later, adding, “This is what we and the new administration in Syria want.”
He also claimed that Turkey’s problem was “exclusively with terrorists”, not with “our Kurdish brothers living in Iraq and Syria”.
However, the UN, US and other Western governments also consider HTS a terrorist group, while acknowledging that they have softened their stance in recent years.
Some groups within the SNA also adhere to extremist ideologies and have been sanctioned by the US Treasury Department for committing serious human rights violations in northern Syria. This has not stopped Turkey from promising assistance, including military support, to the rebel-led transitional government.
Despite those and other accusations against Turkey and Turkish-backed forces, Erdogan claimed on 10 December that Turkey had strictly followed international law “since the beginning of the Syrian conflict”.