After a four-and-a-half-year military standoff along the disputed Himalayan border, 2024 saw a thaw in relations between India and China with both sides withdrawing troops from two flashpoints. But analysts say mistrust remains a major obstacle to the restoration of friendly ties between the Asian giants.
Indian Foreign Minister Subramaniam Jaishankar told Parliament this month that the tensions had set New Delhi-Beijing relations “on the path to some improvement.” But he stressed the need to restore stability on the border. “We are clear that maintaining peace in the border areas is a pre-requisite for the development of our relations.”
While troops have withdrawn from the face-off on the disputed stretches, thousands of soldiers are still spending their fifth winter in the Himalayas, while artillery and fighter aircraft are deployed along the border.
“For four years the atmosphere on the border has been one of war preparation, so converting them into peacetime deployment is going to be an operational, mental, psychological and structural activity, which again will take a certain amount of time,” said Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Professor Swaran Singh of the School of International Studies said.
A large part of the poorly defined 3,488 km long border between the two countries is disputed. Tension had risen after a 2020 border clash in which 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers were killed.
High-level diplomatic talks to discuss the border dispute resumed last week after five years. According to a statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, following a meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian National Security Advisor Wang Yi in Beijing, both sides reaffirmed their commitment to finding solutions that are “fair, reasonable and acceptable to both sides.” be acceptable to.
The two countries also decided to resume travel of Indian pilgrims to Tibet and resume border trade at a mountain pass.
The ground for this thaw was laid by a meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia in October.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Li Jian told reporters at a press briefing last week that Beijing is ready to work with India to enhance mutual trust and manage their differences.
Analysts in New Delhi say that India will proceed cautiously. “Border-related issues are something that India wants to address first, and then comprehensively normalize relations with China,” Singh said.
However, economic cooperation is expected to move forward rapidly. China wants to capture India’s growing market while New Delhi needs more Chinese imports as it wants to become a manufacturing hub. Although bilateral trade has flourished despite the border crisis, India had banned Chinese investment and halted the issuance of visas after the 2020 clashes.
According to Vice President Harsh Pant, “Although one should not expect dramatic changes in political relations, economic relations will probably develop much faster and perhaps India will be more generous in opening up its markets or opening up certain sectors.” Chair for Studies at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang, at a meeting on the sidelines of the Group of 20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro, asked his Indian counterpart to restore direct flights between the two countries and facilitate visa for Chinese citizens, which has been suspended during the pandemic. Were given.
“China and India’s common interests far outweigh their differences. Both sides should see each other’s development as an opportunity,” Wang told Jaishankar.
Analysts say a thaw in relations between India and China, Asia’s two largest countries, will not affect the pace of New Delhi’s relations with Washington, which have grown in recent years partly due to mutual concerns about Beijing’s assertiveness. Because the momentum has picked up. Apart from its Himalayan border, New Delhi is also concerned about China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean – Beijing has built ports in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and is building one in Myanmar.
“Both India and the US want a certain kind of Indo-Pacific, a certain kind of geography, strategic geography, which is free, balanced, open and fair, which is also inclusive and, in some ways, these ideas will continue to move forward. Relationship,” Pant said.
Both the countries are cooperating in areas ranging from defense to high technology. America is also India’s largest trading partner.
New Delhi’s relations with Washington have seen some tension. For example, India did not join the US sanctions imposed on Russia and has continued to import large quantities of crude oil from Moscow.
Speaking at the launch of ‘India’s World’, a foreign policy magazine, in New Delhi recently, Jaishankar said ties between India and the US will continue to deepen, even if the two sides do not see eye-to-eye on every issue.
Jaishankar said, “There is a very honest conversation on where we agree and where we don’t.”
Describing their relationship as “important and big”, Jaishankar said, “We keep these conversations in mind but keep taking them forward [overall] relationship.”
Analysts say India will continue to engage with the United States and other Western countries on forums like the Quad.
“It’s a win-win deal for both sides. China is a structural challenge to both India and the US, so whether there is a crisis or not, India and the US will continue to deepen their relationship,” said Sankalp Gurjar, assistant professor of geopolitics at the Gokhale Institute of Politics. Economics.