Readiness to support Ukraine “until it wins” has declined sharply across Western Europe at a critical time for the country, a poll shows, as Donald Trump’s upcoming return to the White House raises concerns about the future of US military aid to Kiev. But raises questions.
Polling conducted in December by YouGov in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Denmark and the UK found that the public’s willingness to stand by Ukraine until victory – even if it meant prolonging the war – was the highest in the past 12 months. There has been a decline in all seven countries.
The survey found that support for an alternative solution to the conflict – a negotiated end to the fighting, even if Russia controlled parts of Ukraine – had increased in every country and was the preferred option in four of them.
There was some unhappiness with the idea of an imposed agreement, which included ceding Ukrainian territory to Russia, but there was also a widespread belief that the new US President would abandon Ukraine after his inauguration on January 20.
Trump has claimed without giving details that he could end the war “in 24 hours”, and his Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg is scheduled to visit European capitals in early January. Analysts have expressed skepticism that Russian President Vladimir Putin will negotiate terms that are in any way acceptable to Kiev.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed Trump’s victory amid anger over the outgoing Biden administration’s escalation policy and “escalation management” strategy.
The data comes nearly three years after Putin’s full-scale invasion and at a critical moment for Ukraine. This year Russia is advancing at its fastest pace since spring 2022, when its columns tried unsuccessfully to capture Kiev.
Russian troops have captured several towns and cities in the eastern Donbass region, with the Armed Forces of Ukraine struggling to defend urban settlements due to a shortage of frontline troops and Russia’s continued military superiority.
Kiev concedes that the Kremlin’s tactics have been effective, including deploying aviation to target defensive positions with glide bombs, then using artillery barrages and small groups of infantry. Russia is also adept at identifying vulnerable Ukrainian brigades.
Polling showed that willingness to support Ukraine until it defeated Russia remained high in Sweden (50%) and Denmark (40%), with the UK at 36%, but these levels were up 14 points from January 57 data. Were below. %, 51% and 50%.
Over the same period, the percentage saying they preferred a negotiated peace increased to 45% in Italy, 46% in Spain (38%), 43% in France (35%) and 45% in Germany (38%). 55% done. This decline was matched by Ukraine’s readiness to support it until it wins.
It was not clear whether this change reflected a decline in interest or increasing fatigue. In France, Germany and Sweden, those wanting Ukraine to win – and caring that it wins – have remained stable since the beginning of 2023, although they have declined elsewhere.
With less than a month left until Trump’s return, a majority or near-majority in all countries except one thought it was likely that the US president-elect would stop supporting Ukraine: 62% of Germans, 60% of Spaniards, 56% % Britons, 52% French and 48% Italians.
They were less certain about whether Trump would withdraw the US from the NATO defensive alliance, with Danes, Germans, Italians, Spaniards and Swedes more likely to think it wasn’t going to happen, but Britons and the French were evenly divided. Went.
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People were also divided on how they would feel about a peace deal that would give Russia control over at least parts of Ukraine, which it has illegally seized since its February 2022 invasion. As Trump may reportedly be planning,
Majorities in Sweden (57%), Denmark (53%) and the UK (51%), and a large minority in Spain (43%) said they would feel very or fairly negative about such a deal, while only 37% in France and 31% in Germany and Italy.
It is not clear how any agreement can be reached on Ukraine. Putin reiterated his maximalist goals last week, which included Russian control over Crimea and four “occupied” Ukrainian territories, as well as Ukraine’s demilitarization and a veto over its NATO membership.
Zelensky is not ready to hand over the occupied territory to Russia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has criticized Western discussion of the peace process as premature and said Ukraine should get everything it needs to prevent Putin from winning.
The poll showed that most Western Europeans felt Ukraine’s allies were not doing enough to prevent Russia from winning the war, both in terms of economic sanctions against Moscow and military and other aid to Kiev.
About 66% of Danes, 63% of Swedes and Spaniards, 59% of Britons, 53% of Germans and Italians, and 52% of the French said overall aid to Ukraine was either not enough, or not nearly enough. However, some thought their country should increase support.
Minorities ranging from 29% in Sweden to 21% in Britain and Germany, 14% in France and only 11% in Italy believe their government should increase aid to Ukraine, with larger proportions in every country saying it should or So should be maintained or reduced.
In terms of specific measures such as increasing sanctions, shipping more weapons, sending more troops to support NATO members in Eastern Europe or coordinating air strikes against Russian targets in Ukraine, support is stable or lower than before. Was.
When asked to say what they thought the situation would be a year from now, some Western Europeans thought that either Russia or Ukraine would win, while most believed that either country would win right now. Might also have been fighting, or peace might have been negotiated.
An agreement was seen as more likely by those in Denmark (47%), Germany (40%), the UK and France (38%) and Italy (36%), with continued fighting seen as a marginally more likely scenario by those Seen as. Spain (36%) and Sweden (35%).