Syrians and legal experts are reacting to comments by Syria’s de facto leader that it could take four years for new elections to be held after the removal of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and three years to draft a new constitution.
In an interview with Saudi news channel Al-Arabiya, Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, said on Sunday that holding elections in Syria laid the groundwork for a comprehensive political process. Adequate time is required to do this.
His comments have sparked a debate among Syrians and legal experts, who believe he and his group, Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), could exploit the transition period to tighten their control over the country, or The proposed timeline is realistic given Syria’s fragmented state. More than a decade of struggle.
HTS, formerly the branch of al-Qaeda in Syria, led an 11-day rebel offensive that overthrew the Assad regime on December 8. HTS has controlled an area in the country’s northwestern province of Idlib in recent years.
Anwar al-Bunni, co-founder and executive director of the Syrian Center for Legal Studies and Research, described the new constitution and the proposed timetable for elections as logical.
“We cannot talk about a new constitution and elections while Syrians are scattered all over the world,” he told VOA, referring to Syrians who have been displaced by the country’s 13-year conflict .
According to the United Nations, more than 14 million Syrians have fled their homes since 2011, of whom 7.2 million are internally displaced, while about 5.5 million are refugees in neighboring countries and elsewhere.
Bunni said Syrian refugees should return home to secure decent shelter and basic services, allowing them to consider and discuss their political future.
“A period of 3 to 5 years is realistic before the Syrian people are fully ready to vote and participate in politics,” he said. “We need an independent electoral commission and political parties, and for that to happen, you need a lot of preparation.”
Syrian American activist Ammar Abdulhamid, who serves as parliamentarian and policy director at the World Liberty Congress, agreed that waiting 4 years before holding elections was not unreasonable, “as long as the transitional government is sufficiently diverse, And in the interim the governance structure remains responsive to criticism while respecting basic human rights.
“However, if this 4-year period is used to fill key positions and institutions with Islamist loyalists of HTS and al-Sharaa, we would be looking at a planned takeover of the regime – a transition to sectarian authoritarianism. One change, which is justified in the name of protecting minorities, is justified by the claims of majority authority,” Abdulhamid wrote on X, adding that “the incoming transitional government “The structure will be a key indicator of where things are going.”
HTS has appointed a caretaker government made up of loyalists to manage affairs until March 1, 2025, which is the new government’s own deadline to begin a transitional process. In his Al-Arabiya interview, al-Sharaa said that a national dialogue conference, tentatively scheduled to be held in January, would determine the composition of the transitional government.
Bunni noted the need for a provisional constitution, saying there should be a legal framework for the functioning of the country in the transitional period.
Other experts argue that establishing a participatory system of governance for all Syrians must begin by involving all stakeholders in the transitional process.
“The Syrian people are not naïve,” said Bassam Alhamad, executive director of Syrians for Truth and Justice. “They know where HTS comes from, and they will want to make sure they have the right to have a say during this important time.”
He told VOA that he did not believe the Syrians were overly concerned about the 4-year timetable. Instead, his focus was on what might emerge during that period.
“If HTS has the intention and the political will to establish an inclusive system that allows all Syrians, including the Kurds and other groups, to actively participate in the affairs of their country in the present and future, I do not think that People will object to the process taking a few years,” Alhamad said.