UK 10-year borrowing costs hit highest level since 2008 as Rachel Reeves’ fiscal headroom evaporates – Business Live | Business

IFS: Reeves’ lead could be eroded by bond sales

heather stewart

heather stewart

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, has confirmed that a bond market selloff is threatening to leave Rachel Reeves out of business – and potentially force her to make spending cuts.

Speaking to the Guardian, the yield on 10-year UK debt reached its highest level since 2008, Johnson They say:

“Broadly speaking, what has happened in bond markets since the Budget has been largely enough to close the very small gap left by Rachel Reeves.”

[this is the headroom to meet the chancellor’s fiscal rules, which include having debt falling as a share of the economy in five year’s time. In last autumn’s budget, it was just £9.9bn],

Johnson Cautioned that many assumptions go into office for budget accountability forecasts, so there may be other factors working in the Chancellor’s favour.

But all else being equal, bond market moves potentially point to spending cuts – given that the Treasury has reiterated its commitment to fiscal rules, and reeves In line with the OBR’s forecast, it has promised no tax rises in its spring statement.

He explains:

“The only thing that can take a toll on any of these is the number of your expenses.”

This points to trouble ahead, given that spending is already expected to be limited after 2025-26.

Johnson They say:

“The plans are already very strict, at 1.3% [increase in spending] One year, which means the best situation is on hold for most departments. Just take it below 1.3% and it feels really tough. If we get to this point, it will be a very bloody cabinet fight.

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Lloyds CEO will leave this year

Julia Kolleway

Julia Kolleway

It’s all change at the top lloyd’sThe world’s oldest insurance market, founded in 1688.

It today announced its chief executive john neal Will leave the company this year, after leading the company for more than six years. He will join the London-based insurance company Aeon As global CEO of Reinsurance and Global. Chairman of Climate Solutions, the date of his departure will be confirmed soon.

Indigo Led Lloyd’s – which is made up of more than 50 insurers and more than 380 brokers – through Brexit, rising interest rates and inflation, a global pandemic and geopolitical conflict such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Before joining Lloyd’s, Indigo He was forced to take a pay cut as head of Sydney-based QBE, one of the world’s largest insurers, after he failed to tell the board about his affair with his personal assistant.

Chairman of Lloyd’s, bruce carnegie-brownis also leaving after an eight-year term, and will be succeeded by Sir Charles Roxburgh On 1 May, a former McKinsey consultant and ex-permanent secretary at the Treasury, who also served as director general for financial services, where he had dealings with the insurance sector and Lloyd’s.

back in september, lloyd’s Announced an increase in pre-tax profit to £4.9 billion for the first six months of 2024, from £3.9 billion a year earlier.

However, the group has faced repeated criticism over its refusal to force its member syndicates to stop underwriting fossil fuel projects, and insurance companies operating in the market are the world’s largest lenders to oil and gas projects. Was the underwriter, the campaign group’s research has revealed fix it Our Future Got it last year.

In those days, lloyd’s It was also accused of “lacking in reparations” in response to an academic review that highlighted its “crucial role” in making the transatlantic slave trade possible.

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Full story: Trump considering declaring national economic emergency to impose tariffs

joseph gideon

Donald Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to impose sweeping tariffs, CNN reports, as the president-elect seeks to seize the Panama Canal, acquire Greenland and force Canada to become a US state. The threats have been increased.

The emergency powers move would allow Trump to impose sweeping tariff measures against both allies and adversaries through the International Economic Emergency Powers Act, according to four sources familiar with the discussions.

Sources told CNN that the emergency powers would give Trump significant leeway in creating a new tariff program without having to demonstrate traditional national security justifications. A source familiar with the matter told the network, “Nothing is off the table,” and confirmed that there have been vigorous discussions about declaring a national emergency.

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Photograph: Jimin Kim/SOPA Images/REX/Shutterstock

After yesterday’s decline, trading started on a slow note on Wall Street.

S&P 500 The stock index fell 5 points, or 0.1%, to 5,903 as traders digested the threat of new tariffs from the Trump White House.

dow jones industrial average There was a loss of 0.33%, while the technology-focused nasdaq is down 0.33%.

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IFS: Reeves’ lead could be eroded by bond sales

heather stewart

heather stewart

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, has confirmed that a bond market selloff is threatening to leave Rachel Reeves out of business – and potentially force her to make spending cuts.

Speaking to the Guardian, the yield on 10-year UK debt reached its highest level since 2008, Johnson They say:

“Broadly speaking, what has happened in bond markets since the Budget has been largely enough to close the very small gap left by Rachel Reeves.”

[this is the headroom to meet the chancellor’s fiscal rules, which include having debt falling as a share of the economy in five year’s time. In last autumn’s budget, it was just £9.9bn],

Johnson Cautioned that a number of assumptions go into office for budget accountability forecasts, so there may be other factors working in the Chancellor’s favour.

But all else being equal, bond market moves potentially point to spending cuts – given that the Treasury has reiterated its commitment to fiscal rules, and reeves In line with the OBR’s forecast, it has promised no tax rises in its spring statement.

He explains:

“The only thing that can take a toll on any of these is the number of your expenses.”

This points to trouble ahead, given that spending is already expected to be limited after 2025-26.

Johnson They say:

“The plans are already very strict, at 1.3% [increase in spending] One year, which means the best situation is on hold for most departments. Just take it below 1.3% and it feels really tough. If we get to this point, it will be a very bloody cabinet fight.

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In the UK, the rollout of electric vehicle (EV) public charging devices has been slow.

Transport Department data shows 73,334 devices were installed as of January 1, up from 53,677 a year earlier.

This is a 37% increase for 2024 compared to a 45% increase in 2023.

RAC senior policy officer bar dennis They say:

“It is positive to see that the availability of EV charge points is improving. However, it is also important to pay particular attention to their potency For anyone without a road who can’t charge cheaply At home

There is still a large difference in prices between public and domestic chargers, partly due to the higher rate of VAT at public charge points compared to the 5% domestic rate. Charge point installation and cheaper public charging costs are two sides of the same coin when it comes to driving private EV demand.

last month, National Audit Office It was warned that large parts of the country were missing out on the deployment of these electric vehicle charge points, even though the government was on track to deploy 300,000 by 2030.

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US initial unemployment claims declined last week

American companies kept their employees where they could during the holiday period.

The number of new ‘initial claims’ for unemployment aid fell by 10,000 to 201,000 in the week to January 4.

Economists had expected a modest increase of 214,000.

Encouraging decline in initial unemployment claims. However, keep in mind that seasonal adjustments are very difficult this time of year. On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, initial claims are more than 300K. pic.twitter.com/MqOO1iN8cj

-Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) 8 January 2025

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US private sector salaries rose 122k in December

RECENT: New data shows U.S. companies added fewer workers to their payrolls last month than expected.

payroll operator ADP reported that US companies added 122,000 new employees in December, less than the 140,000 Wall Street economists had predicted.

Service companies added 112,000 Jobs were lost – half in education and health services – while goods producers added 10,000 workers.

That’s a slowdown from November, when payrolls rose by 146,000, but hardly an economic emergency.

In this richardsonchief economist A.D.PThey say:

“Labor market growth slowed in the final months of 2024, leading to a slowdown in both hiring and wage gains.

“Health care led the way in the second half of the year and created more jobs than any other sector.”

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The rise in UK bond yields since earlier this year has posed a “big problem” for Chancellor Rache Reeves, before the Office for Budget Responsibility put its new forecasts on paper.

so say Sanjay King And Shreyas Gopal Of deutsche EdgeJoe believes Reeves’ margin for keeping within his fiscal rules may have been exhausted.

He told customers:

The little scope left in the autumn budget has probably been exhausted.

How big is Britain’s debt burden? Based on current market expectations, we expect central government net interest costs to be approximately GBP 10 billion higher per year between 2025/26 and 2029/30 (relative to autumn budget projections).

They say the Chancellor may have to make further tax rises as well as spending cuts:

On 26 March, when the OBR presents its updated economic outlook, economic changes look inevitable. GDP growth for the current calendar year will be revised downwards from its optimistic 2% estimate. Inflation will also almost certainly be more moderate – increasing borrowing costs. And given recent survey data, the OBR’s unemployment projections are also likely to be higher than previously thought.

What does this mean for the fiscal outlook? Spending cuts, more borrowing, and possibly a little more taxation to close the emerging fiscal gap. Indeed, the upcoming Spring Statement, Spending Review and Autumn Budget will likely be a painful sequel to the Chancellor’s historic inaugural Budget.

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European stock markets are in the red as a selloff in the bond market and the possibility of Donald Trump imposing new US tariffs dented traders’ optimism.

in London, FTSE 100 The index of blue-chip shares is now down 30 points, or 0.37%, at 8214, with utility companies and house-builders in the decline.

as little as FTSE 250 The index fell 1.7%, on track for its biggest one-day loss since last August.

Throughout Europe, France CAC has suffered a loss of 0.9%, while Germany’s dex Down a modest 0.18%.

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It is worrying to see the UK currency weakening on a day when bond yields are rising, warned Viraj Patel, FX and global macro strategist at Vanda Research.

⚠️ One of the biggest red flags in macro markets – and a sign of fiscal dislocation – is a rise in yields and a decline in the currency. This is happening again in the UK (last we saw it in Q4 ’22… after *that* budget). feels ominous $GBP pic.twitter.com/y2LvfRGY6p

– Viraj Patel (@VPatelFX) 8 January 2025

[typically, higher bond yields should signal higher interest rates, which should strengthen a currency]

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